Analyzing the Odds for Each NBA Championship 2018 Contender's Winning Chances

As I sit down to analyze the 2018 NBA Championship contenders, I can't help but reflect on how player development systems across different leagues shape championship-caliber teams. Looking back at Cone's decision to pick the 6-foot-1 Thompson, that former NCAA MVP and known triple-double machine from University of Perpetual Help, it reminds me how crucial draft decisions become when building a championship roster. The Warriors' dominance throughout the season made them the clear favorites, with their superteam roster featuring Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, and Klay Thompson creating what many considered an unstoppable force. Their offensive rating of 115.6 during the regular season was simply phenomenal, and having watched them dismantle opponents with such surgical precision, I'd argue they were operating at about 85% efficiency in crucial games.

The Houston Rockets emerged as the most legitimate threat to Golden State's throne, and honestly, I found myself rooting for them more than I expected. Their acquisition of Chris Paul created a backcourt that could genuinely challenge the Warriors' supremacy. The Rockets' revolutionary three-point heavy offense, masterminded by Mike D'Antoni, produced an average of 15.3 made threes per game during the regular season. Watching James Harden evolve into an MVP candidate was absolutely thrilling - his step-back three became the most unstoppable move in basketball that year. What impressed me most was their defensive improvement; they ranked sixth in defensive efficiency, a massive jump from previous seasons.

Then we had the Cleveland Cavaliers, though I must admit I was skeptical about their chances from the beginning. LeBron James was performing at an otherworldly level, carrying what was essentially a flawed roster through the Eastern Conference. His playoff performance that year, averaging 34 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 9 assists, was arguably the greatest carry job I've witnessed in modern basketball. However, the midseason roster overhaul created chemistry issues that never fully resolved. The Cavs' defensive rating of 111.0 placed them near the bottom of playoff teams, and against elite competition, that deficiency proved fatal.

The Toronto Raptors presented an interesting case study in team building. Their depth was remarkable, with what I considered the strongest bench in the league, outscoring opponents by 8.3 points per 100 possessions when the starters rested. DeMar DeRozan had developed into a legitimate scoring threat, though his playoff performances still left me questioning his ability to deliver in crucial moments. Their systematic approach to the regular season earned them the top seed in the East, but having watched them year after year, I remained unconvinced they had the mental toughness to overcome LeBron's psychological hold over the conference.

What fascinated me about that season was how the traditional power structure had shifted. The Boston Celtics, despite losing Gordon Hayward just five minutes into the season, developed into a defensive juggernaut under Brad Stevens. Their defensive rating of 103.9 led the league, and watching their young core mature faster than anyone anticipated was one of the season's great stories. Jayson Tatum's emergence as a legitimate scoring threat in the playoffs made me believe they could potentially upset Cleveland in the Eastern Conference, though their offensive limitations ultimately held them back.

The Western Conference playoff picture was particularly brutal that year. Teams like the Utah Jazz, with Donovan Mitchell's sensational rookie campaign, and the Oklahoma City Thunder, featuring the Russell Westbrook-Paul George experiment, presented intriguing dark horse possibilities. The Thunder's net rating of 3.9 suggested they were better than their 48-34 record indicated, though their inconsistent performance in close games worried me throughout the season.

When I assess championship odds, I always look beyond raw talent to factors like coaching adaptability, playoff experience, and defensive versatility. The Warriors excelled in all these categories, with Steve Kerr's ability to make crucial adjustments and their core's championship experience giving them a significant mental edge. Their offensive system, built on ball movement and player movement, produced an assist percentage of 70.3%, the highest in the league by a substantial margin.

The Rockets' approach was equally fascinating - their isolation-heavy system seemed counter to modern basketball trends, yet their efficiency in these sets was remarkable. James Harden alone generated 1.22 points per isolation possession, the highest mark in the league. Mike D'Antoni's willingness to adapt his philosophy to his personnel demonstrated why he's one of the most innovative coaches in basketball history.

As the playoffs unfolded, the Warriors' championship pedigree ultimately proved decisive. Their ability to elevate their performance in crucial moments, particularly in the Western Conference Finals against Houston, demonstrated why experience matters in championship pursuits. Kevin Durant's scoring efficiency in the playoffs, with a true shooting percentage of 64.1%, was simply unsustainable for any defender. The Cavaliers' run through the Eastern Conference, while impressive, exposed the conference's weakness relative to the West.

Reflecting on that season, I'm convinced the Warriors' victory was almost inevitable given their talent advantage and championship experience. However, the Rockets pushing them to seven games in the Western Conference Finals showed how narrow the margin between success and failure can be at the highest level. Chris Paul's hamstring injury in Game 5 remains one of the great "what if" scenarios in recent NBA history - healthy, I believe Houston had about a 45% chance of winning the series rather than the 25% chance most analysts gave them.

The evolution of championship contenders that season highlighted how team construction has become more sophisticated, with organizations placing greater emphasis on three-point shooting and defensive versatility. The success of teams built around positionless basketball validated this approach, while traditional centers who couldn't defend in space saw their value diminish significantly. This shift in roster construction philosophy has continued to shape how teams approach building championship contenders in subsequent seasons.