Who Will Win the 2024 NBA DPOY Award? Top Candidates and Predictions

As I sit here watching Rudy Gobert anchor the Minnesota Timberwolves' defense, I can't help but reflect on how much the Defensive Player of the Year conversation has evolved over the years. The 2024 NBA season presents one of the most intriguing DPOY races we've seen in recent memory, with several legitimate contenders bringing different defensive philosophies to the table. Having followed this award closely for over a decade, I've noticed how voter preferences shift between rim protectors, versatile wings, and disruptive guards – and this year might just break the traditional mold.

The conversation absolutely begins with Rudy Gobert, and frankly, I believe he's the frontrunner right now. The Timberwolves boast the league's best defensive rating at 108.3, and Gobert's impact is undeniable. His 2.3 blocks and 12.8 rebounds per game only tell part of the story – it's the sheer number of shots he deters that doesn't show up in traditional stats. Minnesota allows 8.2 fewer points per 100 possessions when he's on the court, which is just absurd. I've always been a sucker for elite rim protection, and watching Gobert transform Minnesota's defensive identity has been remarkable. His ability to single-handedly shut down the paint forces opponents into difficult mid-range shots, which analytics have shown are the least efficient looks in basketball today.

Then there's the sentimental favorite – Draymond Green. At 33 years old, he's putting together another masterclass in defensive IQ and versatility. The Warriors' defense improves by 6.7 points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor, and he's still capable of guarding all five positions effectively. What fascinates me about Draymond is how he anticipates plays before they develop – it's like he's watching the game in slow motion while everyone else is at regular speed. His 1.3 steals and 0.9 blocks don't jump off the page, but his communication and positioning are what make Golden State's complex defensive schemes work. I've had conversations with coaches who swear Draymond makes more defensive adjustments during play than some assistants do from the bench.

The dark horse candidate who's captured my attention this season is Evan Mobley. At just 22 years old, he's the future of NBA defense – a 7-footer who moves like a guard and processes the game like a veteran. Cleveland's defensive rating sits at 110.1, and Mobley's versatility is the primary reason. He's averaging 1.6 blocks and 0.9 steals while regularly switching onto perimeter players. What impresses me most is his recovery ability – he can contest a three-pointer and still recover to protect the rim in the same possession. I watched him completely neutralize Jayson Tatum in a game last month, holding him to 5-of-18 shooting when matched up directly. That kind of performance against elite competition sticks in voters' minds.

We can't ignore Bam Adebayo, who might be the most versatile defensive big man in the league. Miami's defensive system relies heavily on his ability to execute their aggressive switching schemes. He's putting up 1.1 steals and 0.9 blocks while often guarding the opponent's best perimeter player in crunch time. What separates Bam in my view is his defensive playmaking – he generates 4.2 deflections per game and creates numerous transition opportunities with his active hands. Having studied his defensive tape extensively, I'm convinced he processes pick-and-roll actions better than any big man in recent memory.

The wild card here is Victor Wembanyama. The rookie is putting up historically great defensive numbers with 3.4 blocks and 1.3 steals per game – numbers we haven't seen since prime Hakeem Olajuwon. San Antonio's overall defensive struggles might hurt his case, but individual impact metrics are incredibly favorable. The Spurs allow 11.3 fewer points per 100 possessions when he's on the court, which is frankly ridiculous for a rookie. I've never seen a player with his combination of length and mobility – he can literally block three-point shots without leaving his feet. If voters prioritize pure defensive production over team success, he could sneak into the conversation.

What makes this year particularly interesting is how team success might influence voting. Historically, DPOY winners typically come from top-5 defenses, which gives Gobert and Mobley an edge. But I'm noticing a shift in how voters evaluate defensive impact – there's greater appreciation for players who elevate mediocre defensive units. This could benefit Wembanyama despite San Antonio's struggles. My personal preference has always leaned toward players who transform their team's defensive identity, which is why I'm slightly biased toward Gobert this season. The way he's turned Minnesota from a defensive afterthought to an elite unit reminds me of Ben Wallace's impact during his Detroit years.

The narrative around "I want a championship" that drives many of these candidates adds another layer to the discussion. Gobert's move to Minnesota was clearly championship-motivated, and his defensive leadership has positioned them as legitimate contenders. Draymond's entire defensive mentality is built around championship DNA – he knows what defensive intensity it takes to win in June. This championship-or-bust mentality often brings out the best in defenders during crucial moments, and voters definitely notice who elevates their game when it matters most.

Looking at the current landscape, my prediction is that Gobert will secure his fourth DPOY award, joining Dikembe Mutombo and Ben Wallace as the only players to achieve this feat. The combination of Minnesota's defensive dominance, his individual numbers, and the narrative of his transformative impact creates a compelling case. However, I wouldn't be surprised if Mobley makes it extremely close – his two-way versatility represents the modern NBA ideal. The Cavaliers' surprising defensive efficiency with him anchoring the paint is turning heads across the league. Whatever the outcome, what's clear is that defensive excellence in the NBA is evolving, and these candidates represent different visions of what elite defense can look like in today's game.